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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:53.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:65
Current Record:22-11
Expected Record:22-11
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:327


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-1153.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10American (336.0)PatH83-45W100%0.0
11-14UMKC (256.0)WACH72-51W100%0.0
11-17UC Irvine (119.0)BWH71-49W100%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH80-58W100%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (66.0)P12N90-92L0%0.0
11-24George Washington (195.0)A10N67-59W100%0.0
11-29Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH77-68W100%0.0
12-3Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA79-84W100%0.0
12-5USC Upstate (344.0)ASunH86-49W100%0.0
12-9Tulsa (89.0)AmerH54-61L0%0.0
12-16Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH89-71W100%0.0
12-20Washington St. (179.0)P12A65-68W100%0.0
12-29Iowa St. (144.0)B12A75-91W100%0.0
1-1West Virginia (27.0)B12H69-77L0%0.0
1-6Texas Tech (23.0)B12A74-58L0%0.0
1-10Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12H86-82W100%0.0
1-13Kansas (5.0)B12A73-72L0%0.0
1-16Oklahoma (49.0)B12H87-69W100%0.0
1-20TCU (26.0)B12H73-68W100%0.0
1-22Baylor (68.0)B12A83-90W100%0.0
1-27Georgia (79.0)SECH56-51W100%0.0
1-29Kansas (5.0)B12H56-70L0%0.0
2-3West Virginia (27.0)B12A89-51L0%0.0
2-7Texas (51.0)B12A64-67W100%0.0
2-10Texas Tech (23.0)B12H47-66L0%0.0
2-14Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12A72-82W100%0.0
2-17Iowa St. (144.0)B12H78-66W100%0.0
2-21Texas (51.0)B12H58-48W100%0.0
2-24Oklahoma (49.0)B12A86-77L0%0.0
2-27TCU (26.0)B12A66-59L0%0.0
3-3Baylor (68.0)B12H77-67W100%0.0
3-8TCU (26.0)B12N66-64W100%0.0
3-9Kansas (5.0)B12N83-67L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3926.3963.9563.957.367.36
KansasB125.465.4677.4277.422.992.99
TCUB125.365.3668.9768.972.032.03
West VirginiaB124.064.0668.7568.751.521.52
Oklahoma St.B124.044.0461.2961.290.910.91
TexasB123.973.9761.2961.290.900.90
Texas TechB123.963.9670.9770.971.661.66
Iowa St.B123.943.9444.8344.83-0.41-0.41
OklahomaB123.913.9158.6258.620.670.67
BaylorB123.913.9158.6258.620.670.67
Arizona St.P121.681.6863.3363.330.450.45
VanderbiltSEC1.661.6638.7138.71-0.37-0.37
TulsaAmer1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
GeorgiaSEC1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
Oral RobertsSum1.591.5929.6329.63-0.65-0.65
UMKCWAC1.571.5728.5728.57-0.67-0.67
UC IrvineBW1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun1.561.5611.1111.11-1.22-1.22
Northern ArizonaBSky1.561.5613.7913.79-1.13-1.13
AmericanPat1.561.5620.6920.69-0.91-0.91
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.541.5442.8642.86-0.22-0.22
Washington St.P121.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
George WashingtonA101.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.240.2424.1424.14-0.12-0.12
Wichita St.Amer0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2144.1244.12-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
South DakotaSum0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
OregonP120.170.1764.7164.710.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
ArkansasSEC0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
StanfordP120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
FloridaSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
WashingtonP120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
NevadaMWC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
USCP120.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
MontanaBSky0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
IdahoBSky0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
CaliforniaP120.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
SMUAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.098.008.00-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
New HampshireAE0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
OaklandHorz0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
FordhamA100.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LafayettePat0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
UC DavisBW0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0415.6215.62-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00